水稻褐飛蝨族群變化與發生之預測模式

Abstract

褐飛蝨為台灣最重要水稻害蟲之一，如防治不當則導致水稻品質及產量降低，造成莫大的損失。台灣每年亦會遭受海外蟲源之遷入，每年遷入時間及族群大小不一，且蟲害可長距離遷移，遷入台灣之害蟲來源區域甚廣，再加上大環境氣候異常，害蟲族群之變化更劇烈，有待長期監測，以掌握族群之變動。因此配合長期田間害蟲族群發生動態，利用時間序列分析方法，建立門檻自相關模式，並結合相關重要因子(例如:水稻移植後之天數)當作解釋變數，來發展提早偵測害蟲之大發生，為早期預警、適時施藥防治、達到水稻安全生產目的之重要目標。

Brown planthoppers are important pest insects of rice in Taiwan. Incorrect control strategy will reduce the quality and yield of rice production. The brown planthoppers can migrate to Taiwan every year. Moreover, the migrant time and population abundance are often changeable. Because brown planthoppers can be migrated with long distance, their impacts are significant in Taiwan. Also, climate change probably affects the population of brown planthoppers. By long-time monitoring system of insects, the population fluctuations of brown planthoppers are recorded. Therefore, threshold autoregressive model (TAR), one method of time series analysis, has been used to establish the relationship between the field data of the long-time pest insects and the relevant variables, e.g., days after transplanting (DAT). The forecasting system for the outbreak time of brown planthoppers will provide the information of early warning and chemical application for rice safe production.