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標題: 水稻褐飛蝨族群變化與發生之預測模式
Forecasting model of population fluctuation and occurrence of brown planthoppers
作者: 蔣國司
關鍵字: 應用研究;population fluctuations;植物保護類;族群變動;預測;褐飛蝨;時間序列;forecasting;brown planthopper;time series

Brown planthoppers are important pest insects of rice in Taiwan. Incorrect control strategy will reduce the quality and yield of rice production. The brown planthoppers can migrate to Taiwan every year. Moreover, the migrant time and population abundance are often changeable. Because brown planthoppers can be migrated with long distance, their impacts are significant in Taiwan. Also, climate change probably affects the population of brown planthoppers. By long-time monitoring system of insects, the population fluctuations of brown planthoppers are recorded. Therefore, threshold autoregressive model (TAR), one method of time series analysis, has been used to establish the relationship between the field data of the long-time pest insects and the relevant variables, e.g., days after transplanting (DAT). The forecasting system for the outbreak time of brown planthoppers will provide the information of early warning and chemical application for rice safe production.
其他識別: 100農科-9.1.2-檢-B2(3)
Appears in Collections:農藝學系

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