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標題: 前瞻性坡地土石災害即時監測預警系統-子計畫:以即時監測系統預測邊坡的變形和滑動堆積(I)
Landslide Prediction by a Real-Time Monitoring System (I)
作者: 張光宗
關鍵字: 林業類;應用研究;landslide;山崩;監測;預測;反算分析;有限元素法;分離元素法;monitoring;prediction;inverse analysis;finite element method;discrete element method

Landslide prediction regarding the time of occurrence and the extent of debris deposition is one of the important ways to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage. In addition to empirical equations based on observations, numerical models based on mechanics can be used to predict landslides. It requires the modeling of stress-strain relationships of geomaterials, which are in general varies in space and time during rainfall. However, the key issue for successful prediction is the selection of representative parameters in the numerical models. This subproject includes three parts. First, establish the method of inverse analysis to calibrate the input parameters in the numerical models by monitoring data. Second, correlate rainfall and displacement of a landslide using finite element analysis by inverse analysis with monitoring data of a landslide case or of the slope model in the laboratory of the third subproject. Third, predict the runout patterns of a landslide by monitoring data, inverse analysis, the finite element method, and the discrete element method. The landslide prediction for the time of occurrence and the extent of debris deposition contributes to a real-time warning system, the aim of the forth and fifth subprojects.
其他識別: NSC97-2625-M005-002
Appears in Collections:水土保持學系

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