Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: `http://hdl.handle.net/11455/56195`
 標題: 前瞻性坡地土石災害即時監測預警系統-子計畫:以即時監測系統預測邊坡的變形和滑動堆積(I)Landslide Prediction by a Real-Time Monitoring System (I) 作者: 張光宗 關鍵字: 林業類;應用研究;landslide;山崩;監測;預測;反算分析;有限元素法;分離元素法;monitoring;prediction;inverse analysis;finite element method;discrete element method 摘要: 要減少坡地山崩或地滑造成的災害和傷亡，其中一個重要的方法就是預測山崩的發生時間及滑動堆積的範圍。除了以觀察或監測資料建立經驗關係，來預測山崩的發生時間，以力學理論為基礎的數值分析，也可用來預測山崩的發生時間及滑動堆積的範圍。此時就需要掌握和預測地質材料的應力應變行為，但地質材料通常在空間和時間上有變異性，包括隨著降雨而改變的地質材料性質及地下水壓等。在數值模型中，使用具代表性的地質材料參數，才能使山崩的預測準確。計畫分為三個部分，第一部分，研究如何由監測資料和數值計算的結果，反推和校正數值模型中輸入的參數，以建立反算分析或逆分析的方法和流程。第二部分，以子計畫三實驗室坡地模型的量測資料，或地滑案例的監測資料，採用第一部分所建立的方法，反推校正有限元素法模擬所輸入的地質材料參數，以建立邊坡降雨和地滑位移的關係，應用於警戒時機的判定。第三部分，結合監測資料、反算分析方法、有限元素法和分離元素法，可模擬邊坡的運動堆積，以應用於警戒區域的判定。以即時監測系統的資料，預測山崩的發生時間及滑動堆積範圍，可作為子計畫四和子計畫六即時分析決策系統的參考。Landslide prediction regarding the time of occurrence and the extent of debris deposition is one of the important ways to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage. In addition to empirical equations based on observations, numerical models based on mechanics can be used to predict landslides. It requires the modeling of stress-strain relationships of geomaterials, which are in general varies in space and time during rainfall. However, the key issue for successful prediction is the selection of representative parameters in the numerical models. This subproject includes three parts. First, establish the method of inverse analysis to calibrate the input parameters in the numerical models by monitoring data. Second, correlate rainfall and displacement of a landslide using finite element analysis by inverse analysis with monitoring data of a landslide case or of the slope model in the laboratory of the third subproject. Third, predict the runout patterns of a landslide by monitoring data, inverse analysis, the finite element method, and the discrete element method. The landslide prediction for the time of occurrence and the extent of debris deposition contributes to a real-time warning system, the aim of the forth and fifth subprojects. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/56195 其他識別: NSC97-2625-M005-002 Appears in Collections: 水土保持學系