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標題: 風場軌跡模式加入NCEP資料於台灣境外污染長程傳輸之研究
Modeling of long-range transport of air pollutants using a trajectory model integrated with NCEP reanalysis data
作者: 黨美齡
Tang, Mei-Ling
關鍵字: GTx;高斯煙流軌跡模式;Traj;NOAA NCEP-DOE Reaanalysis-2 Data;NetCDF;風場軌跡模式;NOAA NCEP-DOE Reaanalysis-2 Data;NetCDF
出版社: 環境工程學系所
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本研究主要目的為修改風場軌跡模式(Trajectory, Traj),將National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)再分析網格資料加入模式計算模組,冀望高斯煙流軌跡模式(Gaussian Trajectory transfer-coefficient model, GTx)之軌跡線結果改善,進而利用東亞地區排放量模擬台灣境外污染物對台灣之效應。
過去之模擬結果顯示軌跡線離開台灣後,因台灣本島近海岸處及鄰近島嶼僅有少數地面氣象站且相距甚遠,軌跡線到達海上後可用氣象資料變少導致準確度較低,故本研究加入美國National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 再分析網格資料來補強氣象資料的不足,並探討風場軌跡模式之海上軌跡線路徑,結果顯示風場軌跡模式加入再分析資料後,海外軌跡線與Hysplit模式軌跡線相近。此外,經由軌跡線及統計分析評估後,考量本研究為大尺度範圍模擬,故NCEP再分析網格資料之權重函數選用10-8。在污染物長程傳輸部分,本研究推估東亞地區SO2及NOx排放量,並初步評估東亞地區對台灣之SO2及NOx影響濃度。2009年事件日期間,東亞地區污染源對北東眼山晚上12時之SO2貢獻濃度高值約為5.8 ppb,晚上12時之NOx貢獻濃度高值約為22.8 ppb。目前,模擬值有低估之現象,應是受到北東眼山高度及計算模組未盡理想等因素所導致。境外污染物多由亞洲工業區域污染物排放後,順著氣流傳遞至台灣並受到地形影響沉降至地表。

The meteorological data is important for an air quality model to determine the trajectory of air pollutants. However, the insufficient observed meteorological data over the sea would increase the uncertainty of the modeling trajectory. In this study, the trajectory model (Traj) was revised and NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data was used as an input of the trajectory model to improve the accuracy of the trajectory. After that, the impacts of the long-range transported air pollutants could be estimated by Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient modeling system (GTx).
Additional, cooperating with the Taiwan Air Quality Model East Asia emission inventory, to investigate the origins of pollutants, the variations of pollutants, and the effect to the neighbor area of the accumulated concentration. The results shows that SO2 and NOx concentration is underestimating, considering the impact factor, like height of mountain and mixing height, this part of preliminary assessment are needed to solve in the mountain of 2009 high-polluted episode days. According to the trajectory results, the long range transportation way depend on the airflow, when passing the industrial development city, it will carry pollutants to Taiwan. On the appropriate meteorological status and mountain impediment, the pollutant will accompany with the airflow and deposition to the surface.
The result shows that the optimal weighting coefficient for NCEP data is 10-8. Furthermore, in episode days in 2009, the concentrations at the North Tungyen Mountain station transported from East Asia were 5.8 ppb for SO2 and 22.8 ppb for NOx, respectively.
其他識別: U0005-2607201013493100
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