Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/66244
標題: 自然干擾對八仙山國家森林遊樂區地景變遷之影響
The Influence of Natural Disturbances on Landscape Change in Basianshan National Forest Recreation Area
作者: 李宗宜
Li, Zong-Yi
關鍵字: 自然干擾;natural disturbances;地景變遷;FRAGSTATS;Logistic迴歸;八仙山國家森林遊樂區;landscape change;FRAGSTATS;Logistic regression;Basianshan National Forest Recreation Area
出版社: 森林學系所
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摘要: 
Basianshan National Forest Recreation Area was established in 1978. The recreation area was famous for its forestry history and plentiful forest resources. Basianshan Nature Center, built in 2008, provided ecotourism and education services for visitors. However, the recreation area was sometimes destroyed and thus closed due to earthquake and typhoons
The purpose of this study was to analyze the landscape changes under the influences of natural disturbances in Basianshan National Forest Recreation Area. I used aerial ortho-photos in four periods, i.e., before 921 earthquake (1998), after 921 earthquake (2001), after Mindulle, Haitang and Matsa typhoons (2005), and after Sinlaku and Jangmi typhoons (2008). The forest, bared soil, watercourse, grass and building areas were classified in each period. I overlapped each landscape maps with FRAGSTATS to realize the landscape status and check the changing patterns with ArcGIS. The landscape status was discussed in two levels, patch class level and landscape level, and the landslide probability was predicted with Logistic regression. The results intended to provide landslide management implications for Dongshih Forest District Office.
In the patch class level, the forest area (calculated by land percentage) and forest large patch index (LPI) were decreased after 921 earthquake. On the other hand, the forest edge density (ED) and landscape shape index (LSI) were increased. I also found that the area of bared soil and its patch density (PD) were increased. The results indicated that forest area was destroyed from the earthquake and became fragile. The Mindulle, Haitang and Matsa typhoons had small effects on the areas of forest and bared soil. The results showed that the PD and watercourse and grass areas were increased, which meant the typhoons created dispersed landslides and extended the watercourse and grass areas. Since the forest areas were increased and bared soil areas decreased in 2008, I concluded that to some extent the influences of Sinlaku and Jangmi typhoons were not serious, and the landslide management of Dongshih Forest District Office was effective.
In the landscape level, the LPI decreased from 1998 to 2005 but increased in 2008. The PD, ED, LSI and landscape diversity index increased from 1998 to 2005 but decreased in 2008. Huge bared soil areas were occurred in 921 earthquake, where used to cover with forest. There were areas of watercourse and grass increased in Mindulle, Haitang and Matsa typhoons, which made the landscape more complex. The bared soil area was not recovered with forest until 2008. The Dongshih Forest District Office have some some landslide management and natural restoration, making the landscape more complete. The value of mean patch fractal dimension (MPFD) equaled to 1 and remained unchanged, which meant all landscape changes was created by natural disturbances.
The results of landscape change analysis showed that there were 2,010.95 ha (85%) forest areas that have never changed. There were 129.99 ha (83%) of bared soil areas (156.66 ha) changed from forest areas in 2001 because of 921 earthquake. There were 56.24 ha (36%) bared soil areas changed to forest in 2005 and represented 88.55 ha (57%) forest in total in 2008. There were 73.08 ha (50%) of 147.32 ha bared soil areas changed from forest after Mindulle, Haitang and Matsa typhoons. There were 52.66 ha (36%) bared areas recovered to forest, but 20.42 ha (14%) still covered by bared soil in 2008. The bared soil areas were decreased to 67.10 ha in 2008, among which 44.69 ha (66%) bared areas have been existed, and 8.65 ha (13%) was created Sinlaku and Jangmi typhoons. A lot of bared areas closed to Shiwen River were not recovered to forest during 1998 – 2008. I suggested these areas should be managed carefully.
Finally, I used Logistic regression to realize the relationship between landslide and environmental factors, including distance from the river, elevation, slope and aspect,. The results showed that the landslide often occurred in the areas where the distance of river within 100 m, lower 1,000 m asl, slope over 50° in the south and southwest direction. I used those characteristics to build an equation, ln(p/(1-p)) = -0.705-0.115R-0.184E+0.463S+0.047A, where p represented landslide probability,R was the distance with river, E was elevation, S was slope and A was aspect, to predict landslide probability. The model explained 60% of variance. There were 71.38% the landslide areas occurred in the high and extreme high potential areas.

八仙山國家森林遊樂區成立於1978年,由於其擁有豐富的森林資源以及林業歷史,因此成為臺灣中部地區著名的森林旅遊景點,2008年成立自然教育中心後,提供遊客在森林區域內從事生態旅遊活動,進一步發揮森林環境教育的功能。然而過去受到地震與颱風等自然干擾,曾造成遊樂區內多處崩塌、道路中斷,以至於面臨休園的狀況。
本研究欲探討地震與颱風等自然干擾對八仙山國家森林遊樂區地景變遷的影響,使用九二一地震前(1998年)、九二一地震後(2001年)、敏督利、海棠與馬莎颱風後(2005年)以及辛樂克與薔蜜颱風後(2008年)等四個時期的航空攝影正射影像進行地景判釋,將地景分成森林地、裸露地、河道、草生地以及人工用地等五項進行討論。同時以FRAGSTATS軟體進行地景結構與變遷分析,並利用GIS中的空間統計進行地景轉移量分析。最後,針對崩塌地進行環境因子(包含坡度、坡向、海拔高及河流環域)分析,亦以Logistic迴歸計算出崩塌機率,並繪製崩塌潛感圖,期望提供經營管理單位在災害管理與防治上參考。
結果顯示,在嵌塊體類型層級上,地景受到九二一地震的影響,森林地的地景面積比(%Land)、最大嵌塊體指標(LPI)下降,邊界密度(ED)以及地景形狀指標(LSI)上升;而裸露地的面積、嵌塊體密度(PD)上升,亦即表示森林面積受到崩塌的影響而減少且林相變破碎。受到敏督利、海棠與馬莎颱風的影響,森林地與裸露地面積皆稍微下降,但是裸露地PD、草生地以及河道面積上升,表示森林仍持續受到崩塌的影響,而且其崩塌之裸露地較為分散,草生地與河道則有明顯的擴張現象。2008年雖然受到辛樂克與薔蜜颱風的影響,但森林地面積上升、裸露地面積下降,顯示其影響不大,配合森林自然演替以及東勢林管處的崩塌地整治,森林逐漸回復。
在地景層級上,LPI從1998年至2005年呈現下降的趨勢,2008年才上升,PD、ED、LSI以及地景多樣性指標則呈現相反的趨勢。此結果顯示八仙山國家森林遊樂區地景在九二一地震之前以森林為主體(97.13%),故地景較完整且單純,受到九二一地震的影響,裸露地面積從23.22 ha增加至156.66 ha(6.32%),地景漸趨複雜。之後陸續受到敏督利、海棠與馬莎颱風的干擾,除了崩塌數量增加外,河道與草生地面積也隨之擴張,因此2005年地景最為複雜。2008年後由於森林的自然演替以及東勢林管處的崩塌地整治工程,導致森林回復至93.5%,崩塌狀況也改善,故地景漸趨完整。從平均嵌塊體碎形維度(MPFD)沒有明顯變化,且其值接近於1顯示八仙山國家森林遊樂區地景主要係受到自然干擾的影響。
地景轉移量分析結果顯示,八仙山國家森林遊樂區經歷四期的地景變遷,有 2,101.95 ha(85%)的森林地完全沒有改變,表示其並未受到自然干擾的影響。2001年的裸露地有156.66 ha,其中 129.99 ha(83%)原來為森林,顯示九二一地震造成森林地大量崩塌。裸露地中有56.24 ha(36%)在2005年回復為森林地,到了2008年總共有88.55 ha(57%)回復為森林地。2005年的裸露地有147.32 ha,其中有73.08 ha(50%)來自於森林地,顯示這些森林是受到敏督利、海棠與馬莎颱風的影響而發生崩塌,其中到了2008年有52.66 ha(36%)回復為森林,20.42 ha(14%)仍維持為裸露地。2008年的裸露地有67.10 ha,其中有44.69 ha(66%)在之前就已經成為裸露地,另外有8.65 ha(13%)的森林地受到辛樂克與薔蜜颱風影響轉變為裸露地。研究結果也顯示,從2001年至2008年都是裸露地的地區多集中於十文溪河道沿岸,遠離河道邊的裸露地多半經過幾年後就會回復為森林,故應將十文溪沿岸列為崩塌地防治之重點地區。
最後分析八仙山國家森林遊樂區2001年崩塌地與環境因子間的關係,結果顯示八仙山國家森林遊樂區的崩塌地主要集中於坡度>50°,坡向為南向與西南向坡,海拔高位於1,000 m以下,以及河流環域100 m以內。進一步利用Logistic迴歸分析得到方程式ln(p/(1-p))=-0.705-0.115R-0.184E+0.463S+0.047A,p表示崩塌機率,R表示河流環域因子,E表示海拔因子,S表示坡度因子,A表示坡向因子,其整體預測率有60%,而實際崩塌地則有71.38%位於崩塌潛感圖的高潛感以及極高潛感區域中。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/66244
其他識別: U0005-0102201318003900
Appears in Collections:森林學系

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