Stability of money demand function revisited in China

Abstract

As China's economic reforms have undergone significant structural changes after 1979, it has been rather difficult to formulate a stable money demand function over the period following that year. While previous literature on the long-run relationship of money demand in China shows the existence of stable money demand, this article revisits the stability of the China money demand function over the period after 1979. To employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests with structural break, the empirical evidence demonstrates that economic and financial deregulation did affect the stability of demand for money in China over the period 1977 to 2002. Moreover, the estimated long-run income and interest elasticity are respectively 1.01 (1.11) and -0.14 (-0.08) using the real M1 (M2) equation. In addition, real income and the interest rate are found to be weakly exogenous. We overall do find structural breakpoints mainly in 1980 and 1993, and they look to match clearly with corresponding critical financial and economic incidents.