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標題: Dangerous Rating of Flood Prone Areas-A Case Study of Hillside in Chunghua County
作者: 蕭宇伸
Yu-Shen Hsiao
Chung-Chieh Tien
Szu-Hsien Peng
關鍵字: 洪水;危險等級;層級分析法;flood;dangerous rating;Analytic Hierarchy Process
Project: 水土保持學報, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page(s) 1395-1406.
每逢颱風或豪雨時,大量雨水宣洩不及,流至下游地區常引起洪水氾濫,進而危及民眾行車安全,若能於易淹水區進行現場調查,並針對各淹水原因進行相關重要性分析,就能進行危險等級評估以利作為後續防災之重要參考依據。本研究以彰化縣山坡地範圍(彰化市、芬園鄉、花壇鄉、大村鄉、員林鎮、社頭鄉、田中鎮、二水鄉)八鄉、鎮、市轄區等18處易淹水區為例,使用線性組合法做為易致災淹水環境指標之評估方法,並在決定各因素之權重時採用層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)設計專家問卷,以對偶比較方式(pair wise comparison)估算特徵向量(eigen vector)以代表各準則之權重,再將求得之權重作危險等級評估。本研究針對15位專家進行專家問卷訪談,透過AHP獲得權重最重要的5項因子,分別為「水道淤積或河床有雜物」、「區域內有無防汛施工缺口」、「地勢低窪或地層下陷」、「淹水潛勢模擬之應用」及「水利署易淹水地區核定範圍」等,並針對18處易淹水區建立完整危險等級評估方法。

Abundant runoffs derived from typhoons and heavy rainfalls usually flow to downstream areas and cause flood hazards, and then endanger people’s traffic safety. If field investigations over potential flood zones can be implemented and main flooding factors can be seriously analyzed, the dangerous ratings of the flood prone areas can be subsequently conducted for important references of following disaster preventions. This research is aimed at investigating and evaluating the dangerous ratings of 18 prone flood hilly areas in Changhua, Fenyuan, Huatan, Dacun, Yuanlin, Shetou, Teinchung, and Ershui of Changhua County. The algorithm for dangerous rating evaluation is based on the linear combination method. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for expert questionnaire design while determining weights of factors. The “pair wise comparison” is applied for predicting eigenvectors in order to give the weights of standards which are subsequently used for dangerous rating evaluations. In this study, 15 experts are interviewed by the questionnaire methods to obtain five most important factors of weights by AHP, which are (1) watercourse siltation or riverbed debris, (2) With or without gaps of constructions for flood prevention, (3) low-lying or subsidence, (4) applications of simulated potential floods, and (5) flood prone areas approved by Water Resources Agency, respectively, and to establish a complete assessment method on dangerous ratings for 18 flood prone areas.
Appears in Collections:第47卷 第03期

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