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標題: Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility along the Route No.21
台 21 線道路邊坡崩塌潛感分析
作者: 趙逸幃
Yi-Wei Chao
關鍵字: 台 21 線;羅吉斯迴歸;崩塌潛感分析;Route No.21;logistic regression;landslide susceptibility
引用: 27. 賴丞昶(2009),「地質材料參數最佳化及其餘地滑行為分析之應用」, 國立中興大學水土保持學系碩士論文。 28. 鍾意晴(2009),「區域性山崩潛感分析方法探討-以石門水庫集水區 為例」,國立中央大學地球物理研究所碩士論文。 29. Agresti, A. (2002), 'Categorical Data Analysis (2nd ed.)', New York: John Wiley, 710p. 30. Atkinson, P. M. and R. Massari. (1998),'Generalized linear modelling of susceptibility to landsliding in the central Apennines, Italy.' Comput. Geosci. 24:373-385. 31. Chau, K.T. and Chan, J.E. (2005) 'Regional bias of landslide data in generating susceptibility maps using logistic regression: case of Hong Kong island,' Landslides, 2: 280- 290. 32. Chauhan, S., Sharma, M., Arora, M.K.,(2010), 'Landslide susceptibility zonation of the chamoli region, Garhwal Himalayas, using logistic regression model', Landslides,7:411-423. 33. Feinberg, S.(1985), 'The analysis of cross-classified categorical data (2nd ed.)', Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 198p. 34. Gorsevski, P.V., Gessler, P.E., Foltz, R. B. and Elliot, W.J. (2006)'Spatial Prediction of Landslide Hazard Using Logistic Regression and ROC Analysis', Transactions in GIS, 10 (3): 395-415. 35. Hoek E, Carranza-Torres C, Corkum B (2002) 'Hoek–Brown failure criterion—2002 edition. ' In: Proceedings of NARMS-TAC Conference, Toronto, vol. 1, pp. 267–273. 36. Lee CT et al.,(2008), 'Statistical Approachto Storm Event-Induced Landslide Susceptibility,' Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences, 8, 941-960. 37. Nefeslioglu, H. A., Duman, T. Y., and Durmaz S. (2008), 'Landslide susceptibility mapping for a part of tectonic Kelkit Valley (Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey),' Geomorphology, vol. 94, no. 3-4,pp. 401-418. 38. Rahardjo, H., Li, X.W., Toll, D. G., and Leong, E. C.(2001), 'The effect of antecedent rainfall on slope stability' Geotechnical and Geological Engineering 19: 371-399. 39. Romana, M. (1993) 'A geomechanical classification for slopes: slope mass rating. In: Hudson, J.A. (Ed.) .' Comprehesive Rock Engineering. Pergamon Press, Oxford, pp. 575–599. 40. Sim, J. and Wright, C.C. (2005) 'The kappa statistic in reliability studies: use, interpretation, and sample size requirements.'Phys Ther.85:257-268. 41. S?rensen, R., Zinko, U., and Seibert, J. (2006) 'On the calculation of the topographic wetness index: evaluation of different methods based on field observations.' Hydrology and Earth System Sciences', vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 101-112. 42. Varnes, D.J. (1978) 'Slope movement types and processes. In Special report 176: Landslides: Analysis and Control', Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C. 43. Wilson, J. P. and Gallant, J. C.( 2000).'Terrain analysis : Principles and Applications'. John Wiley & Sons. Inc. 51-58. 44. British Geological Survey, Natural environment research council, 45. ArcGIS Resources,
本研究利用羅吉斯迴歸建立台 21 線陳有蘭溪沿線邊坡單元之崩塌潛感模式,對可能造成崩塌之因子進行篩選,將歷年四次颱風(賀伯颱風、桃芝颱風、敏督利颱風及辛樂克颱風)資料建立模型,並計算各因子的羅吉斯迴歸係數,建立模型方程式;模型以分類誤差矩陣與ROC 曲線判斷其模型之準確度,模型準確性為 81.4%,AUC=0.771,兩種驗證方法皆說明模型之可行性;再以莫拉克颱風驗證模型,其準確率為 80.8%,結果良好。最後將不同雨量重現期距之三日雨量,重現期距包含 10 年 50 年 100 年帶入模型內計算各邊坡單元之潛感值,、、建置陳有蘭溪流域公路沿線邊坡單元崩塌模型,並繪製此道路邊坡之崩塌潛感圖,可供日後崩塌預測、預警性封路之參考。

In this research, a susceptibility prediction model of landslides for the route No. 21 is established using logistic regression. The regression model is obtained using the data of topography, geology and rainfall of four typhoons, Herb, Sinlaku, Mindulle, and Toraji. The classification error matrix and the ROC curve show the accuracy of 81.4% and AUC of 0.771. Both two verification modes show good feasibility of this model. Furthermore, it is further verified by the data of typhoon Morakot with the accuracy of 80.8%. Finally, the susceptibility of each slope unit is predicted with respect to three daily rainfalls of recurrence intervals of 10, 50, and 100 years. The landslide model and susceptibility map along the route No. 21 in the Chenyoulan creek watershed is established.
其他識別: U0005-2306201516230400
Rights: 不同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務
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