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標題: 群集檢測在考慮檢測門檻下信賴區間之比較
Comparison of Confidence Interval for Proportions Estimated by Using Group Testing under the Existence of a Threshold of Detection
作者: Chih-Wei Chung
關鍵字: Group testing;Threshold of detection;Confidence interval;Coverage probability;Genetically modified crop.;群集檢測;檢測門檻;信賴區間;覆蓋機率;基因改造作物
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在農業上群集檢測為一可降低成本與提高效率之檢測方法,此一 統計方法可應用於陽性反應個體的估計,其檢測流程如下,首先將欲 檢測的個體劃分為數個群集,再分別針對各個群集進行檢測,若檢測 結果為陽性反應,則稱該群集內至少有一陽性之檢測單位;若檢測結 果為陰性反應,則稱該群集內之所有檢測單位皆為陰性,此方法特別 適用於陽性反應個體數較少的情況;若當檢測方法本身存在有檢測門 檻,隨著群集內檢測單位數的增加,可能造成一群集被檢測為陽性的 機率遠低於其門檻值,進而導致偽陰性的檢測結果。本研究主要在探 討當使用群集檢測且帶有檢測門檻時,群集內檢測單位為陽性之機率 估計問題,討論與比較四種信賴區間方法(Wald、Likelihood Ratio、 Score 及 Exact),目的在探討此四種區間方法在群集檢測帶有檢測門 檻時表現之優劣處;其中信賴區間之評估準則,以覆蓋機率、期望寬 度及平均絕對偏差為標準,進而歸納出較佳之區間方法,以提供在實 際應用之參考。本研究並以兩組實際資料-轉基因玉米 CBH351 的檢 測與甜椒種子病毒 PMMoV 的檢測為例,來加以闡述所提供統計方法 之應用,相信此研究結果在農業實際應用上將有所助益。

In the investigation of agricultural science, provided that the level of infection in the population is not too large, considerable gains in efficiency may be made by group testing. Group testing is a method of pooling a number of units together and performing a single test on the resulting group. The procedure is particularly useful when the number of positive units is expected to be low and obtaining test material is cheap, but testing itself is expensive. In most cases, the classification of groups is binary, If a test is positive, it is assumed that at least one of the plants in the group is positive. Otherwise, it is assumed that all the plants are negative. When threshold of detection exists in analytical facilities and the group size is increased, it might lead to a false negative result, the probability of failing to detect defective items when in reality defective items exist. The objective of this study is to estimate the probability of defective individuals for any group size by using four confidence intervals (Wald, Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Exact methods) when a threshold of detection exists by using group testing. To evaluate and investigate the pros and cons of the four confidence intervals, coverage probability, expected width, and mean absolute deviation were used as the criteria. Finally, optimal confidence intervals will be recommended for providing the practical use. Moreover, the methods of this study were demonstrated and tested on the detections of genetically modified corn CBH351 and a seed-transmittable Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) in pepper seeds. We believe that the results of the study will be useful for the practical application in agricultural science.
其他識別: U0005-2406201513300900
Rights: 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,2015-07-16起公開。
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