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標題: 印尼可可豆產業之貿易政策分析
Trade Policy Analysis of Indonesia Cocoa Industry
作者: Faisal Akbar
關鍵字: C-O 反覆估計模型(Cochrane-Orcutt iterative model);引申需求;Cochrane-Orcutt Interative model;derive demand.
引用: Abdeel Hameed, A., A. and F. Arshad., M. (2014). 'Future Trends of the Export Demand for selected malaysian Cocoa Product.' Academic Journals Inc Abdeel Hameed, A., A., A. Hasanov., N. Indris., A. Abdullah., M., F. Arshad., M. and M. Shamsuddin., N. (2009). 'Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market.' Munich Personal RePEc Archive(MPRA Paper No. 19568,posted 25). Asteriou, D., and Stephen G. Hall. 2006. Applied Econometrics. New York : Palgrave Macmillan. Chopin, P. and J. M. Blazy (2013). 'Assessment of regional variability in crop yields with spatial autocorrelation: Banana farms and policy implications in Martinique.' Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 181: 12-21. Cochrane, D. and G. H. Orcutt (1949). 'Application of Least Squares Regression to Relationships Containing Auto- Correlated Error Terms.' Journal of the American Statistical Association 44(245): 32-61 FAO (2013). Indonesia Cocoa Export. Available at (accessed October 17, 2013) FAO (2014). Indonesia Cocoa Production. Available at gateway/go/to/download/Q/QC/E (accessed May 20, 2014) FAO (2013). Indonesia Palm Oil Export. Available at gateway/go/to/download/T/TP/E (accessed May 20, 2014) FAO (2013). Indonesia Palm Oil Production. Available at gateway/go/to/download/Q/QC/E (accessed October 17, 2014) Finance Ministry of Indonesia (2012). Kajian Perkembangan Perekonomian Kakao Nasional Pasca Pengenaan Bea Keluar Biji Kakao. Available at (accesed April 1, 2014) Gujarati, D. 2011. 'Econometrics by Example.' England: Palgrave Macmillan. Harris, G., Richard. Schmitt, Nicholas (2000). 'Strategic export policy with foreign direct investment and import substitution.' Journal of Development Economics 62 85-104. Hasan, M. F. a. R., Michael R. and Marchant, Mary A. (2001). 'Effects of an Export Tax on Competitiveness: The Case of the Indonesian Palm Oil Industry.' Journal of Economic Development 26(2). Indonesia Agriculture Ministry (2014). Perkembangan Volume dan Nilai Komoditas Primer Perkebunan tahun 2009-2013. Available at (accessed June 12, 2014) Indonesia Trade Ministry (2014). Badan Pengawas Berjangka Komoditi. Available at (accessed June 10, 2014) International Trade Centre (2013). Trade Map. Available at ReturnUrl=%2fBilateral_TS.aspx(accessed October 17, 2013) Klasen, S., J. Priebe and R. Rudolf (2013). 'Cash crop choice and income dynamics in rural areas: evidence for post-crisis Indonesia.' Agricultural Economics 44(3): 349-364. Kompas (2010). Bea export kakao kebijakan yang syarat kepentingan. Available at (accessed October 12, 2013) Konandreas, P., P. Bushnell and R. Green (1978). 'Estimation of Export Demand Function for U.S. Wheat.' Western Journal of Agricultural Economics(1). Lantican, F. A., M. A. Sombilla and K. P. Quilloy (2013). 'Estimating-the-Demand- Elasticities-of-Rice-in-the-Philippines.' Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA)(1) Laopodis, N. T. (2005). 'Feedback trading and autocorrelation interactions in the foreign exchange market: Further evidence.' Economic Modelling 22(5): 811-827. Maddala, G., S. (2001) Introduction to Econometrics. London: John Wiley and Sons. Mitra, S. and J. M. Boussard (2012). 'A simple model of endogenous agricultural commodity price fluctuations with storage.' Agricultural Economics 43(1): 1-15. Nasir, G. (2012) 'Pedoman Umum Gerakan Nasional Peningkatan Produksi dan Mutu Kakao.' Direcorate General of Plantation Ministry of Indonesia Agriculture.Print. Neilson, J. (2007). 'Global markets, farmers and the state: sustaining profits in the Indonesian cocoa sector.' Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 43(2): 227-250.. Permani, Risti. (2013). 'Optimal Export Tax Rates of Cocoa Beans: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach.' Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 57.4 (2013): 579-600. Piermartini, R. (2004). 'The Role of Export Taxes in the Field of Primary Commodities.' WTO Publications. Ratnaike, Y. C. (2012). 'Is there an empirical link between trade liberalisation and export performance?' Economics Letters 117(1): 375-378. Serra, T., S. Stefanou, J. M. Gil and A. Featherstone (2009). 'Investment rigidity and policy measures.' European Review of Agricultural Economics 36(1): 103-120. Shepherd, B. and J. S. Wilson (2009). 'Trade facilitation in ASEAN member countries:Measuring progress and assessing priorities.' Journal of Asian Economics 20(4):367-383. Solleder, O. (2013). 'Trade Effect of Export Taxes.' Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. Wartaeconomi (2014). GPEI minta pemerintah tinjau bea ekspor kakao. Available at (accessed April 30, 2014) World Cocoa Foundation (2012).<Cocoa-Market-Update-as-of-3.20.2012.pdf>. World Bank (2013). Indonesia Income per-capita. Available at (accessed October 26, 2013) Yilmaz, K. (1999). 'Optimal export taxes in a multicountry framework.' Journal of Development Economics 60(2): 439-465.
豆課徵從價稅後,是否能面對當出口需求量減少時,國內市場是否做好準備自行吸收多餘之供給數量。本研究採用 C-O 反覆估計模型(Cochrane-Orcutt iterativemodel)以證明何種預測變數對於印尼可可豆供需市場具有顯著影響。本研究指出國內市場價格變數、世界價格變數與稅制對可可豆需求具有顯著影響,但是個人平均所得變數與世界棕梠油價格並未對可可豆需求具有顯著影響。本研究也指出從價稅對於可可豆供需市場具有正向影響,並提供政府調整可可豆產業政策相關建議。

This study investigated the effect of the tax tariff policy on the supply and demand of cocoa bean in Indonesia. The imposed ad valorem tariff of Indonesia cocoa beans was investigated in order to know whether the domestic market is ready or not to absorb the quantity supply of cocoa beans, when the export demand quantity declined.
This study used Cochrane-Orcutt iterative model to identify which predictor variable significantly affects the demand of Indonesia cocoa beans supply. The Cochrane-Orcut
Iterative model is an appropriate estimation on this analysis, where the domestic price of cocoa beans, world price of cocoa beans, and taxes have significant impact to cocoa beans demand of Indonesia while the income per-capita and world palm oil price didn't have impact to cocoa beans demand of Indonesia. This study concluded that the ad
valorem tax tariff of cocoa beans has positive effect on the cocoa beans demand. This study is conducted in order to give suggestion for the government to regulate policy for
cocoa beans industry.
其他識別: U0005-0206201509260100
Rights: 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,2015-07-15起公開。
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