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The Import Demand for Thai's Dried Longan in China
|關鍵字:||泰國龍眼乾貿易;中國龍眼乾進口;出口競爭;RCA;GLS;Thai dried longan trade;China dried longan importing;export competitiveness;RCA;GLS||引用:||Akbar, F. 2014. Trade Policy Analysis of Indonesia Cocoa Industry, Major Field: Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University. Appleyard, D. A., and Field, D. 2001. International economics-trade theory and policy. Chicago, Irwin. Arwatchanakarn, P. and Srisangnam, P. (2009). Revealed Comparative Advantage: Thailand and Indonesia product exports in ASEAN, Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. Balassa, B. 1965. Trade liberalization and revealed comparative advantage. Mancherter School of Economics and Social Studies, 33, 99-123. Chopin, P. and J. M. Blazy. 2013. 'Assessment of regional variability in crop yields with spatial autocorrelation: Banana farms and policy implications in Martiniqe.' Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 181:12-21. Gujarati, D. 2011. 'Econometrics by Example.' England: Palgrave Macmillan. Hasachoo, N., and Kalaya, P. 2013. 'Competitiveness of Local Agriculture: the case of Longan Fruit Trade between China and the North of Thailand.' The Irasec's Discussion Papers Series is published electronically by the Research Institute on Contemporary Southeast Asia. Kanchaisak, J. 2009. 'Longan Exporting Trend of Thailand' Research Exercise in Current Economics Issues, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University. Karnwiboon, P. 2011. Factors Affecting Thailand's Dried Longan Export Supply to the People's Republic of China. Ramkhamhaeng University. Laopodis, N. T. 2005. Feedback trading and autocorrelation interactions in the foreign exchange market: Further evidence.' Economic Modeling 22(5): 811-827 Leechakum, N. 2004. International Trade and Sources of international trade, Macroeconomics 1: Business Department, Rajamangala University of Technology krungthep. Li, Y. 2011. International Economics, Economics & Management School of Southwest University, N.P. Likitwitayawut, K. 2007. Model of distribution of Thai dried longan (Page 131), Bangkok: Office agricultural Economics. Monzur M, Chen S. 2010. 'An Empirical Study on International Competitiveness of Litchi and Longan Industry in China.' Science Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Comilla University, Bangladesh and South China Agriculture University, Guangzhou 510642, China. Pulsarp, U., 2007. The export of fresh longan to the People's Republic of China, Department of Economics, Ramkhamhaeng Universiry. Piyavan, S., 1996. 'Opportunities for Longan Export Expension.' Master Thesis of Economics, Major Field: Economics, Department of Economics, Chiang Mai University. Pongpatcharatrontep, D. 2010. Production, Market and behavior of demand to dried longan in China: Social Research Institute Chiang Mai University. Rifin, A. 2013. Competitiveness of Indonesia's Cocoa Bean Export in the World Market, International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol. 4, No.5, October 2013. Saengadsapaviriya, J. 2010. 'An Impact of Thailand – China FTA on the Management of Longan: A case Study form the Growers to Exporters, Assumption University, Bangkok, Thailand. Tapphan, Y. 2010. International Trade Theory and Policy. Bangkok: Thammasat University Press. Wong Kai, C., 2000. 'Longan Production in Asia' Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Bangkok, Thailand Wongka, W. 2005. 'The Effects of Free Trade Agreement Between Thailand and China on Thai Dried Longans Export.' Master Thesis of Economics, Major Field: Economics, Department of Economics, Chiang Mai University. Yan-Wen, T., and Jian-Bo, G. 2011. 'A Prospect for China's Potential Market of Tropical Fruit.' College of Economics and Management, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China. Yothayai, K. 1998. 'An Analysis of Dried Longan Export Potentials to the People's Republic of China.' Master Thesis of Economics, Major Field: Economics, Department of Economics, Chiang Mai University. Electronic Resources Archa, S. 2012. The chance of Thai's longan in China. Available at http://thailongan.blogspot.tw/2012/08/blog-post_1.html (accessed July 1, 2015). Department of Trade Negotiation. 2014. The obstacles of exporting longan to China. Available: http://www.thaifta.com/thaifta/portals/0/longan_cnsep57.pdf. (Accessed: Jan 10, 2015) Office agricultural Economics. 2015. Production areas and Products of Thai's longan in 2003 – 2015. Office agricultural Economics . Ministry of Agricultrure and Cooperative Available at www.oae.go.th/download/prcai/farmcrop/longan.pdf (accessed April 10 2015). Office agricultural Economics. 2014. Thai longan trading in 2011 – 2013. Office agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Customs Department. Available at www.oae.go.th/fruit/index.php/2013-01-03-34-09?id=154 (accessed January 30 2015).||摘要:||
本研究為分析泰國龍眼乾在中國需求的影響因素，與其他出口國相比，泰國龍眼乾出口量已隨時間減少，如緬甸出口大量龍眼乾於中國，因2003年出口關稅從20%降到0%。因此本文試圖分析泰國對於中國市場未來是否具有優劣勢，通過時間序列數據從1996年至2014年，以多元迴歸方程的計量模型來分析這些數據。係數以普通最小平方法(Generalized Least Squares，簡稱GLS) 估計，並以顯示性比較優勢（Revealed Comparative Advantage，簡稱RCA）分析被用來比較中國進口龍眼乾從2005至2014年泰國和緬甸之間的量。
The general theme of this thesis is to study and analyze the factors affecting the demand of Thai dried longan in China. The amount of Thai dried longan export has diminished overtime when compared with other exporter countries. Such as Myanmar who has large amount of dried longan exported to China especially since China has reduced tariff tax from 20 to 0 percent in 2003. Therefore, this thesis is trying to analyze whether Thailand will have advantage or disadvantage from exporting dried longan to China market in the future, by using the data of time series from years 1996 to 2014. The econometric model in the form of multiple regression equation was used to analyze this data. The coefficient of the equation was estimated by Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method. And the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis was used to compare the amount of dried longan imported of China from 2005 to 2014 between Thailand and Myanmar.
The result from estimated the data by GLS found that China income, Myanmar dried longan price, and tax reduction were positively correlated with import quantity of Thai dried longan to China. However Thai dried longan price and Thai currency exchange rate were negatively correlated.
The result of RCA between Thailand and Myanmar export dried longan to China, was found both of Thailand and Myanmar RCA index over 1 (RCA>1), which means both countries have the comparative advantage. However, Myanmar's RCA was at a higher level than Thai's RCA, as a result of Myanmar has the advantage about border nearby China and many routes for transport dried longan (Logistic). Thailand should maintain and develop the dried longan product to make a standard quality and confidence in Chinese consumer.
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