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標題: 泰國經濟成長關鍵因素與國際貿易政策之研究
Three Essays on International Trade Policy:Key Factors of Economic Growth in Thailand
作者: Padcharee Phasuk
關鍵字: 國際貿易政策;大湄公河次區域 (GSM);亞洲金融危機;東協自由貿易 協定(AFTA);東協-中國自由貿易協定 (ACFTA) 及日本-泰國經濟夥伴協定 (JTEPA);SEM 模式;成長模式;動態顯示性貿易平衡比較優勢 (DRTCA);International trade policy;the Greater Mekong Sub- region (GMS);the Asian financial crisis;the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA);ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) and the Japan- Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement (JTEPA), SEM;Growth model;the Dynamic of Revealed Trade Balance Comparative Advantage (DRTCA)
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本研究包含了三個主題: (1) 泰國邊際貿易競爭力量測: 應用精確的顯示性比較 優勢指數 (Revealed Comparative Advantage Index,RCA), (2) 泰國加入東 協經濟共同體 (ASEAN economic community, AEC) 後發展替代性國際貿易政策 關鍵因素之分析, 及 (3) 自由貿易協定 (free trade agreement, FTA) 對於泰 國經濟成長的影響,這些研究涵蓋了 1995 年至 2011 年的狀況。 第一個主題的 目的是找出驅策大湄公河次區域 (Greater Mekong subregion, GSM) 經濟決定 性的因素及泰國發展 GSM 跨邊境貿易政策的競爭優勢。就影響 GSM 市場的方面來 說,泰國作為橡膠原料、石油、塑膠、鐵及金屬工業的出口國家, 與其他 GSM 國家比起來有較強的優勢。而與中國及越南比起來,泰國對於進口石油、塑膠、 鐵及金屬工業有較強的優勢。因此,泰國有機會在 AEC 的合作中佔有國際貿易地 位。 對於發展這部分的策略使得泰國在與鄰近國家簽訂貿易協定時具有優勢。 泰國必須調整其生產基礎相關的勞力及科技政策以增進與 ASEAN 的關係, 並且 須包括透過運銷及 GSM 國家共有的樣本通信保密發展配銷通路, 來提升所有與 這些可見及實際政策相關的部門參與及可行性與利益的共同研究。 第二個主題的目的是發現影響泰國經濟成長的關鍵因素及提供泰國政府在國際貿 易政策上的建議。 此論文分析的數據依 1997 年的亞洲金融危機分成兩部分, 為的是比較在國際貿易政策改變對於經濟成長的結果。 此部分的結果運用 SEM 模式發現了與國際貿易政策間的關係在 1997 年亞洲金融危機的前後相異的關鍵 因素,此關鍵因素在商業部門、 外國部門及政府部門之中皆不相同。 再加上政 府必須專注在亞洲國家的市場佔有率,包括了外資的直接投資、關稅、 勞力、 出口量及勞工的匯款額皆對國際貿易政策及經濟成長產生影響。 因此, 泰國政 府必須在 AEC 條例的協商前考慮各項農業產品的關稅壁壘, 以避免失去亞洲市 場佔有率。 第三個主題為 FTA 對於影響泰國經濟成長真實的經濟因素估計的晚期研究, FTA 的觀察研究涵蓋了東協自由貿易協定 (AFTA)、 東協-中國自由貿易協定(ACFTA) 及日本-泰國經濟夥伴協定。 分析 FTA 影響經濟成長的結果建議泰國與其他貿易 夥伴簽訂的 FTA 的確對於泰國的經濟成長會造成影響, 各個關係可以用以辨別 泰國的現況及其在全球市場所扮演的角色。 東協的市場必須從海外為外資於泰 國的投資支持足夠的勞力, 而中國經濟市場的推進也對泰國的經濟成長有貢 獻。就泰國與日本在 JTEPA 協定下的貿易來說, 外資直接投資的流入及日本的 人口數對於泰國的經濟成長有正面的影響。 從以上幾個討論可見政府的政策對 泰國的經濟成長之影響可提供泰國在每個市場扮演角色的建議, 並形成一數據 庫為未來泰國的國際貿易政策及 FTA 的簽訂上提供一合適發展基礎。

This study consists of three essays that are (1) Measuring border trade competitiveness of Thailand: application refined index on revealed comparative advantage (RCA), (2) Analysis of key factors in developing alternative international trade policy of Thailand for Joining the ASEAN economic community (AEC), and (3) The impacts of free trade agreement (FTA) on economic growth in Thailand. These studies cover the period from 1995 to 2011. The first essay, intended to discover crucial factors of driving the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) economy and the competitive advantages to develop Thailand policy on cross border trades. The result shown that, Thailand has stronger advantage than the GMS countries for the role as an exporter in crude rubber, petroleum, plastic, iron and steel industries. Thailand role as importer has stronger advantage than China and Vietnam in petroleum, plastic, iron and steel industries. Therefore, international trade position of Thailand has opportunities on the cooperation in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The strategy is to take advantage of trade agreements with neighboring countries. Thailand must adjust to improve the ASEAN production base on both labor and technology, also the development of distribution channels through transportation and logistics in setting new connection in the GMS countries is necessary, to promote participation of all sectors involving visible and tangible policies of the joint study for feasibilities and benefits. Second essay aims to find the key factors affecting economic growth of Thailand and to provide suggestions to the Thai government in international trade policy. The data for analysis is separated by the year (1997) of the Asian financial crisis in order to compare the results in changes of international trade policy. The results of this essay show that the correlation between key factor and international trade policy estimated from the Structural Equation Model (SEM) has a different key factor before and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, which are the business sector, foreign sector, and government sector. In addition, the government should focus on market share in Asian countries, which foreign direct investment, tariff rate, labor force, export volume, and worker remittance have influence on international trade policy and economic growth. Therefore, Thai government should consider the tariff wall on each product in agriculture sector before having to negotiate under the AEC rules, which could prevent loss of market share in the Asian market. Third essay, later studies the substantial impact of the FTA on the economic factor affecting the growth of Thailand's economy. Scope of the study of FTA covers the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), ASEAN- China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) and the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement (JTEPA). Results suggest that the relationship between Free Trade Agreement (FTA) of Thailand with trade partner affect on economic growth of Thailand, wherewith each relationship was able to identify the situation of Thailand and the role to play in the global market. The ASEAN market should support the sufficient labor force for foreign direct investment in Thailand from abroad, and there is more progress in China's economic which contribute to increased economic growth of Thailand as well. In terms of trade between Japan and Thailand under JTEPA, it was found that net inflow foreign direct investment and population of Japan has a positive effect on economic growth of Thailand. From above discussion shown that the government policy has affect on economic growth of Thailand to advice the role to play in each market, and
as a data base for promoting a strategy of international trade policy for develop a suitable environment of Thailand's FTA in the future.
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