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The Impact Analysis of World Shale Oil and Gas Exploration on Future Crude Oil Prices
|關鍵字:||頁岩油氣;原油價格;反需求函數;shale oil and gas;crude oil price;inverse demand function||引用:||Boyer, C., Clark, B., Jochen, V., Lewis, R., & Miller, C. K. (2011). Shale gas: A global resource. Oilfield Review, 23(3), 28-39. Brown, S. P., & Kennelly, R. T. (2013). Consequences of US Dependence on Foreign Oil. Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Chevillon, G., & Rifflart, C. (2009). Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium. Energy Economics, 31(4), 537-549. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. Enders, W. (2004) Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. Grushevenko, E., & Grushevenko, D. (2012). Unconventional Oil Potential Tends to Change the World Oil Market. Energy Science & Technology, 4(1), 68-74 GÜNEYLİGİL, Ü. (2013). Drivers of The Oil Price: An Empirical Analysis of The Effect of Oil Imports by OECD Regions. Doctoral dissertation, Middle East Technical University, Turkish. Hotelling, H. (1931). The economics of exhaustible resources. The Journal of Political Economy, 39(2)137-175. Jabir, I. (2001). The shift in US oil demand and its impact on OPEC's market share. Energy economics, 23(6), 659-666. Kaufmann, R. K., Dees, S., Karadeloglou, P., & Sanchez, M. (2004). Does OPEC matter? An econometric analysis of oil prices. The Energy Journal, 25(4), 67-90. Krichene, N. (2002). World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model. Energy Economics, 24(6), 557-576. Li, H., & Xiaowen Lin, S. (2011). Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India. Energy Policy, 39(8), 4624-4630. Maugeri, L. (2013). The Shale Oil Boom: A US Phenomenon. Discussion Paper 2013-10, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School Miller, J. I., & Ratti, R. A. (2009). Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles. Energy Economics, 31(4), 559-568. Möbert, J. (2007). Crude oil price determinants. Darmstadt discussion papers in economics, Working Paper Series, May, 16 2007 No. 186. Mohr, S. H., & Evans, G. M. (2008). Peak oil: testing Hubbert's curve via theoretical modeling. Natural Resources Research, 17(1), 1-11. National Petroleum Council (NPC) (2011). Prudent development: Realizing the potential of North America's abundant natural gas and oil resources. Washington, D.C: NPC. Parry, I. W. H., & Darmstadter, J. (2003). The costs of US oil dependency. Washington, D.C: Resources for the Future. Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) (2013). Shale oil: The next energy revolution, Oil and Gas Energy Publication. Retrieved form http://www.pwc.com/. Sultan, N. (2013). The challenge of shale to the post-oil dreams of the Arab Gulf. Energy Policy, 60, 13-20. Stevens, P. (2012). The 'shale gas revolution': developments and changes. London,UK: Chatham House U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2011). International Energy Outlook - Reference Case Tables.Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2013a). Technically Recoverable Shale Oil Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States. Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2013b). International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013). Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2013c). Shale Gas Production, Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2013d). Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013). Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2014). Drilling Productivity Report. Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Wang, Q., Chen, X., Jha, A. N., & Rogers, H. (2014). Natural gas from shale formation –The evolution, evidences and challenges of shale gas revolution in United States. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 30, 1-28. Wang, Z., & Krupnick, A. (2013). A retrospective review of shale gas development in the united states. Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 13-12. Wiser, R., & Bolinger, M. (2007). Can deployment of renewable energy put downward pressure on natural gas prices?. Energy Policy, 35(1), 295-306. Wu, G., & Zhang, Y. J. (2014). Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices. Energy Policy, 72, 78-86.||摘要:||
自 2007 年開始，因美國開始大量開發其境內頁岩油氣之資源，使其國內自產之原油及天然氣價格下降，在現今國際原油價格仍居高不下之情形下，使得各國皆在探勘及估計其國內之頁岩油氣資源，而若未來各國能夠成功大量開採其國內的頁岩油氣時，將可能對國際能源市場造成影響。因此本研究為了解目前頁岩油氣之開採對美國國內原油價格之影響，及推估未來全球頁岩油氣資源若能大量開採時，對於國際原油價格將會造成何種影響，首先建立美國西德州中級原油價之反需求函數來分析頁岩油氣資源之開發活動，對其國內自產原油價格之影響；接下來再建立布蘭特原油、杜拜原油及全球平均原油價格反需求函數來間接估計，若未來各國能因頁岩油氣資源之生產進而減少其國內原油之進口需求比例時，對於國際原油價格可能產生之影響。實證結果顯示美國頁岩油氣之開發活動增加時，其國內之西德州中級原油價格將會因此而下跌，而在討論國際原油價格之反需求函數時，結果顯示出如果未來各國原油之進口需求，因各自開採其境內之頁岩油資源而替代了傳統原油，使得原油進口需求減少時，除了其影響力會根據資源分布位置之不同而有不一樣的結果外，就短期而言，美國原油進口需求比例若因頁岩油之開發而減少時，國際油價將會上升；但就未來長期全球國際原油價格整體而言，將會因 OECD國家及非 OECD 國家對原油進口之需求比例減少而下跌。
The US domestic oil price and gas wellhead prices have shown a decreasing trend since 2007 mainly because the increasing output of domestic shale oil and shale gas. Given the increasing output of the US shale oil and gas and the sustained high oil prices, many countries have started to explore and estimate their domestic shale oil and shale gas reserves. As a result, it is very likely that the global energy market could be affected by future large-scale worldwide shale oil and gas production. In this study, we first tried to estimate the impacts of the US shale oil and gas drilling activity on the price of West Texas Intermediate oil, and then evaluate the potential effects of large-scale worldwide shale oil and gas production on the future prices of Brent crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and overall world crude oil. To achieve our goals, two inverse demand functions were constructed to estimate the price effects of shale oil and gas production on crude oil prices. In our models, OECD, non-OECD and US oil import ratios were used as the main explanatory variables along with GDP, drilling activity, oil stock, and OPEC cheating variables. The results show that the US shale oil and gas production has significant negative effects on the WTI crude oil price. While the US shale oil and shale gas production may lead to the increase of world crude oil prices in the short run due to its import monopsony power, the future long-run prices of Brent crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and overall world crude oil may be reduced due to large-scale worldwide shale oil and gas production.
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