Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/89623
標題: 全球頁岩油氣資源開發對未來國際油價之影響分析
The Impact Analysis of World Shale Oil and Gas Exploration on Future Crude Oil Prices
作者: Bi-Yi Liao
廖璧儀
關鍵字: 頁岩油氣;原油價格;反需求函數;shale oil and gas;crude oil price;inverse demand function
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摘要: 
自 2007 年開始,因美國開始大量開發其境內頁岩油氣之資源,使其國內自產之原油及天然氣價格下降,在現今國際原油價格仍居高不下之情形下,使得各國皆在探勘及估計其國內之頁岩油氣資源,而若未來各國能夠成功大量開採其國內的頁岩油氣時,將可能對國際能源市場造成影響。因此本研究為了解目前頁岩油氣之開採對美國國內原油價格之影響,及推估未來全球頁岩油氣資源若能大量開採時,對於國際原油價格將會造成何種影響,首先建立美國西德州中級原油價之反需求函數來分析頁岩油氣資源之開發活動,對其國內自產原油價格之影響;接下來再建立布蘭特原油、杜拜原油及全球平均原油價格反需求函數來間接估計,若未來各國能因頁岩油氣資源之生產進而減少其國內原油之進口需求比例時,對於國際原油價格可能產生之影響。實證結果顯示美國頁岩油氣之開發活動增加時,其國內之西德州中級原油價格將會因此而下跌,而在討論國際原油價格之反需求函數時,結果顯示出如果未來各國原油之進口需求,因各自開採其境內之頁岩油資源而替代了傳統原油,使得原油進口需求減少時,除了其影響力會根據資源分布位置之不同而有不一樣的結果外,就短期而言,美國原油進口需求比例若因頁岩油之開發而減少時,國際油價將會上升;但就未來長期全球國際原油價格整體而言,將會因 OECD國家及非 OECD 國家對原油進口之需求比例減少而下跌。

The US domestic oil price and gas wellhead prices have shown a decreasing trend since 2007 mainly because the increasing output of domestic shale oil and shale gas. Given the increasing output of the US shale oil and gas and the sustained high oil prices, many countries have started to explore and estimate their domestic shale oil and shale gas reserves. As a result, it is very likely that the global energy market could be affected by future large-scale worldwide shale oil and gas production. In this study, we first tried to estimate the impacts of the US shale oil and gas drilling activity on the price of West Texas Intermediate oil, and then evaluate the potential effects of large-scale worldwide shale oil and gas production on the future prices of Brent crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and overall world crude oil. To achieve our goals, two inverse demand functions were constructed to estimate the price effects of shale oil and gas production on crude oil prices. In our models, OECD, non-OECD and US oil import ratios were used as the main explanatory variables along with GDP, drilling activity, oil stock, and OPEC cheating variables. The results show that the US shale oil and gas production has significant negative effects on the WTI crude oil price. While the US shale oil and shale gas production may lead to the increase of world crude oil prices in the short run due to its import monopsony power, the future long-run prices of Brent crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and overall world crude oil may be reduced due to large-scale worldwide shale oil and gas production.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/89623
其他識別: U0005-2506201516291600
Rights: 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,2016-07-16起公開。
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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