Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/92326
標題: 應用實質選擇權於再製造階段式投資計畫之研究
A Study of Stepwise Investment in Remanufacturing Using Real Options Approach
作者: Chi-Yi Shiu
許祺宜
關鍵字: Remanufacturing;Real Options;Jump process;Investment Valuation;再製造;實質選擇權;跳躍過程;投資評估
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摘要: 
環境永續發展是現今許多人所重視的議題,本研究主要是探討利用實質選擇權去評估再製造階段式投資計畫的價值。再製造活動是逆向供應鏈中的一環,指將廢棄產品重新利用,使其像新產品一樣的過程,進而減少對環境的污染。然而,投資再製造計畫的執行成本對企業而言是相當高的,因此藉由實質選擇權去衡量再製造投資計畫價值,即考慮未來的不確定性與管理彈性,使投資計畫的價值不會造成低估的現象,完整呈現其真正的價值。
本研究採用階段式投資計畫,即希望透過階段性投入資金,可降低未來不確定性的風險,業者可先在初期階段投入小筆資金,待未來不確定性降低,即可選擇做進一步的投資,抑或未來狀況不佳時,亦可選擇不繼續投資。此外,本研究探討再製造活動兩個不確定性因素:回收產品數量與法規的不確定性,並將投資計畫分為兩個模型,一是只考慮回收數量的不確定性,並以幾何布朗運動呈現,稱為模型一,二為同時考慮回收數量與法規不確定性之模型,並以幾何布朗運動加跳躍過程呈現,稱為模型二。
從本研究結果得知,模型二之投資計畫的選擇權價值,比模型一的選擇權價值大,其意涵為在考慮法規不確定下,採用階段性投資對於再製造投資計畫是更有獲利空間,因其可降低不確定之風險,且獲得更大的管理彈性。此外,為使本研究之數值分析可更精準正確並符合實際狀況,本研究利用敏感度分析,並考慮三個重要因素:執行成本、可投入再製造的數量比例和各階段執行成本比例,從敏感度分析結果可以得知各階段執行成本比重影響較小,但此為公司內部可控制的變項,因此可使第二階段執行成本比重提高,第一階段執行成本比重降低,則再製造投資計畫價值可往上提升。
最後本研究建議筆電相關之電子產業者,可依公司本身狀況來決定適用之模型,若公司認知未來不確定較大時,可考慮使用模型二,若公司認知未來不確定較小時,則可考慮使用模型一,但無論在何種情況下,採用階段性選擇權,皆可使再製造投資計畫價值提高,因其考慮回收數量與法規的不確定性,並使投資計畫更具管理彈性。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/92326
Rights: 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,2017-07-09起公開。
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