Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/92511
標題: 以顧客價值衡量鐵路訂票之接受-實質選擇權之應用
Applying Real Options Theory to The Right of Railway Ticket Reservation
作者: Jin-Chen Shiu
許堇宸
關鍵字: 訂票;佔票行為;顧客終身價質;實質選擇權;模擬模型;reservation;holdback;customer lifetime value;real option;simulation
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摘要: 
Abstract
Due to the easy access of online railway ticket booking system and free charge of ticket cancellation, the average cancellation rate of Taiwan traditional railway is higher and higher. The situation of holding reservation tickets and ending up with cancellations really harms the customers' rights to make reservations afterwards and also the revenues of the operator, for example, travelers sometimes complaint they can't get tickets and then take another transportation.

To reduce the loss, this study will use customers' historical purchasing data to evaluate each reservist's worth and regard holdbacks as a cost item when calculating customer lifetime values. Then the reservation process is simulated and incorporated with the above calculation to decide whether the company should exercise its right to issue a seat reservation to a customer or reject it for each reservation application.

In this research, we will provide two implementation strategies, and do the computer simulation models to compare their performances. Our results show that the two booking policies, valuing customer lifetime value below certain amount and the real options theory, can improve the success rate of reservation for high-value customers, reduce the overall cancellation rate, and raise the total revenue. We hope to combine real options, customer lifetime value theory and dynamic simulation so that providing a good example for future research.

摘要
台鐵網路及語音所提供取消訂票之便利性以及免手續費的服務,使得台鐵訂票的取消率和未取率一直居高不下,而該類型訂票所衍生的佔票負面行為也一直對台鐵造成潛在的傷害,例如顧客抱怨訂不到票而改搭其他運具。

為了減少這項損失,本研究建議台鐵在預訂車票的過程中,可以運用顧客過去取訂票情形將佔票負面成本納入顧客價值中,對經常發生佔票行為的低價值顧客藉由顧客終身價值的計算予以限制,即發展一套評斷顧客價值的機制,協助台鐵訂票系統的運作,而本研究所提出的兩種設置標準調整方案分別為:實質選擇權法以及各期不同標準門檻值,希冀此些調整方案能將台鐵座位資源做為最佳配置,並改善顧客訂票時的滿意程度,使得對台鐵而言,可以有效降低目前台鐵高、中價值顧客成功取票率過低的情形,進而使台鐵整體顧客滿意度改善,整體列車座位運用更有效率。

根據本研究結果顯示,先行透過分群的資料了解顧客未來的各期行為機率後再進行計算顧客終身價值所提出的設置標準門檻方案,確實有助於高、中價值顧客訂票成功率提升,以及使得座位利用更有效率。而本研究也突破了傳統上,廠商只能被動接受顧客的購買行為,且在理論上,其成功地將實質選擇權、顧客終身價值理論以及動態模擬三者加以結合,而在實務上亦將有效降低目前台鐵取票率過低的情形,提高高價值顧客訂票成功的機率而降低低價值顧客產生訂票後佔票的行為。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/92511
Rights: 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,2017-07-09起公開。
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