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標題: 結合多年期崩塌目錄及降雨因子建立崩塌機率模型
Landslide Probability Model Combined with Long-term Landslide Inventories and Rainfall Factor
作者: 葉彥駒
Yen-Chu Yeh
關鍵字: 崩塌;分析單元;降雨門檻;崩塌機率模型;landslide;mapping unit;rainfall threshold;landslide probability model
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Landslide hazard has considerably uncertainty. Especially in a wide region, it is not easy to confirm the exact area that landslides may happen. Thus more and more researches use probability models to study landslide probabilities.
In this study, the research area is Taipei Water Source Domain, and we choose 8 landslide events from 2000~2015 for analysis. First, we discuss the appropriate mapping unit, and obtained that it is needed to consider the landslide area and the result of probability distribution. In this study, we considered that study area has wide extent, thus we choose slope units as mapping unit, and these can present the geophysical characteristics of a slope. Then we used Thiessen polygons to divide study area into 7 sections.
On the other hand, we collect daily rainfall from rainfall station in study area, and use it to calculated effective accumulated precipitation. Then we calculated the joint cumulative distribution function for each rainfall station. And next we established probability threshold to count how many times that rainfall exceeded the threshold. Then we used Poisson probability model to calculate the probability of a rainfall event that exceeded the threshold in one year. At the same time, we calculated the probability of landslide under this rainfall condition. Finally, we multiplied these two probability values and obtained the landslide probability in one year.
In this study, we obtained that mapping units with higher probability distributed in the southwest of study area, the Fushan(3) rainfall station control area, and the mapping unit with the highest probability value is 0.15100. Except for the reason of weak lithology, it also reveal the relationship with higher elevation and steeper slope. On the other hand, comparison with the landslide probability model just establish with landslide inventories, the landslide probability model combined with rainfall factor shows advantages of: 1.Reflecting the different landslide probability of different rainfall station control area. 2.Rainfall data has longer statistical year than landslide inventories, so it is more reliable. 3.If knowing the change of rainfall probability, we can adjust the original model based on the change of it.
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