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標題: 山崩潛感模型的逐步建構與決策分析-以陳有蘭集水區為例
Progressive Modeling and Decision Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility: Case Study in Chenyulan River Watershed, Taiwan
作者: 葉柏村
Po-Tsun Yeh
Kuang-Tsung Chang
關鍵字: 山崩潛感模型;二項式邏輯斯迴歸;損失函數;弱面位態;最近是否曾經崩過;Landslide susceptibility model;binomial logistic regression;loss function;orientation of the weak plane;presence or absence of previous landslide events
Project: 中華水土保持學報, Volume 50, Issue 2, Page(s) 49-62

Many rainfall-triggered landslides occurred in the Chenyulan river watershed in Central Taiwan during typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, the landslide susceptibility model of the Chenyulan river watershed was developed and evaluated using a binomial logistic regression model based on 249 slope units. The factors considered while developing the landslide susceptibility model were rainfall, topography, geology, and slope condition (i.e., presence or absence of previous landslide events). Next, we tested the goodness-of-fit of the regression. Moreover, we performed receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with loss function to determine the best cutoff point. The cutoff value of probability corresponding to the best cutoff point was used to calculate the accuracy of the model (77%). Overall, the model effectively predicted landslides by using relatively few factors because of progressive modeling and analysis. In addition, the results showed a significant relationship between landslide susceptibility and geological factors (the orientation of the weak plane) and the condition of slope (presence or absence of previous landslide events). The present study can provide a reference for subsequent studies on this topic.
Appears in Collections:第50卷 第02期

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